NFL logo on the field (Photo via Getty Images)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has projected all 32 clubs’ regular season records for the upcoming 2024 season, with the top NFL team having a 24 percent shot of making the Super Bowl.

The Worldwide Leader In Sports uses the FPI system “that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season”. They run 10,000 computer simulations with this system to project the record of each NFL team on any given date.

ESPN has shared the early results of the computer model projections for the upcoming 2024 season. Unsurprisingly, they project the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs to lead the league with 11.1 wins, with a 24 percent chance of winning the AFC and an 11 percent chance of returning to the big dance.

The San Francisco 49ers are a close second with a projected 11.0 wins and 5.9 losses. No NFL team has better odds of reaching the Super Bowl than San Fran at 25 percent, as well as the best odds of winning it all at 15.8 percent.

ESPN’s FPI also projects double-digit wins for the Baltimore Ravens (10.6), Detroit Lions (10.6), Philadelphia Eagles (10.5), Cincinnati Bengals (10.3), Dallas Cowboys (10.3) and Buffalo Bills (10.0). They have the New England Patriots finishing as the worst NFL team of 2024 with 4.9 wins.

Kansas City Chiefs Are The NFL Team To Beat

The Chiefs didn’t even play their best a year ago, finishing with an 11-6 record that actually marked their worst finish in the Patrick Mahomes era. And yet, the Chiefs saved their best for last and secured the first NFL repeat in 19 years.

GM Brett Veach made two big splashes on offense by signing Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown before drafting Texas Longhorns speedster Xavier Worthy. With all that weaponry around him, Patrick Mahomes should return to his MVP-like form in the regular season.