Breaking down the Celtics’ potential playoff path
Nikola Jokic tries to elude Kristaps Porzingis and Jayson Tatum. Winslow Townson/Getty Images
The Celtics (61-16) have officially locked up the best record in the NBA, which means they’ll have home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.
They’re the clear favorites to come out of the East, and they currently have the best odds to win it all.
While this could ultimately be the year, it almost certainly won’t be easy. Here’s a look at the teams they may have to beat in order to capture their first title since 2008.
First round
The top 10 teams are locked in, but the order is still very much yet to be determined.
As it stands now, it’s Celtics, Bucks, Cavaliers, Magic, Knicks, Pacers, Heat, 76ers, Bulls, Hawks, but the Pacers, Heat, and 76ers are all within 1.5 games of one another.
Let’s say it stays as is: That would mean the Heat and 76ers would clash in what could be a pretty entertaining play-in game. The winner would get the Bucks, and the loser would face the winner of Bulls-Hawks with the 8-seed on the line.
So, yes, it’s very possible the Celtics could face the Heat in the first round. The Celtics are 3-0 against the Heat this season, but everyone knows what happened last year. Getting past Miami could provide a huge boost long term.
Boston tends to own Philadelphia, and is 3-1 against the 76ers this season, but facing Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey is no easy task.
It’s also possible they could see a plucky Hawks team that earned two surprising wins against Boston not too long ago.
Eastern Conference semifinals
If the Celtics advance, which they should barring a monumental upset, they could face the Cavaliers, Magic, or Knicks. They’re 2-1 against Cleveland, 2-1 against the Magic, and 4-0 against the Knicks so far.
Boston has shot 52.1 percent from the field and 39.6 percent from 3-point range against defensive-minded New York this year, with one more meeting coming Thursday.
The Magic tend to play the Celtics tough, and up-and-coming star Paolo Banchero is a problem, but Boston appears to have figured out Orlando’s tendencies to some degree. Cleveland stole one in early March with a crazy comeback, but that won’t mean much come playoff time.
The Celtics have a clear talent and experience edge, but all three teams play hard and will make life difficult.
Eastern Conference finals
The Bucks are the most likely matchup, but don’t be stunned if another team like the Cavaliers, Knicks, Heat, or 76ers sneaks in there instead.
If it is Milwaukee, Boston holds a 2-1 edge in the season series, with one more matchup coming Tuesday. Jrue Holiday could get a chance to beat his old team on a grand stage.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is a nightmare for anyone, but the Celtics have found creative ways to dare others to beat them while also exploiting Damian Lillard defensively. Milwaukee matches up fairly well with Boston, but the Celtics have more firepower throughout the roster.
The Heat don’t seem to care too much about their seed, so it’s quite possible they’ll beat Milwaukee again and advance to the Conference Finals.
NBA Finals
The standings have fluctuated throughout the season, but as of Sunday afternoon, it goes: Nuggets, Timberwolves, Thunder, Clippers, Mavericks, Suns, Pelicans, Lakers, Kings, Warriors.
The Nuggets are certainly the most likely opponent, but it wouldn’t be stunning to see the Timberwolves, Thunder, Clippers, Mavericks, Suns, Lakers, or Warriors instead. The West is loaded with talent, 1 through 10.
Denver is the only team in the league that Boston didn’t beat this season. Both games were close, but the Nuggets found a way late. Time will tell whether that plays a factor, but generally, it’s a whole new ballgame come playoff time.
At the moment, the Nuggets have the championship pedigree the Celtics desperately want. It all starts with the man in the middle. When teams put one guy on Nikola Jokic, he scores at will. When they send a double, he makes them pay nearly every time.
It could be a fascinating chess match throughout six or seven epic games.
Perhaps a juicy matchup against Kyrie Irving and the Mavericks, LeBron James and the Lakers, or Steph Curry and the Warriors will ensue instead, but Celtics-Nuggets appears to be the most likely at this point in time.
