Nikola Jokić is the current frontrunner for MVP, but which NBA superstar has the best odds at pulling off an upset?

HIGHLIGHTS

 Nikola Jokić is the front-runner for NBA MVP with impressive stats as the Nuggets look to defend their NBA crown.
 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander excels with top stats while leading the OKC Thunder, the top-seeded team in the West.
 Luka Dončić, the league’s top scorer, could move up thr MVP rankings with more Dallas Mavericks wins.

This year’s NBA MVP race features a mixture of familiar candidates and newcomers alike. A few notable all-stars are in the running to take home the honors this season: Jayson Tatum, Nikola Jokić, Luka Dončić, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The MVP discussion has teetered back and forth for the majority of the 2023-24 campaign.

However, with less than a month remaining in the regular season, the field has narrowed down significantly. Over the last week, a couple of players have been knocking on the door of the MVP race: New York’sJalen Brunson and Minnesota’sAnthony Edwards. With a field of solid candidates, did either of them do enough to supplant anyone in the Top 5?

2023-24 NBA MVP Candidates

Category
Nikola Jokić
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Luka Dončić
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Jayson Tatum

Points
26.1
30.3
34.0
30.7
27.2

Rebounds
12.3
5.2
9.1
11.5
8.3

Assists
9.0
6.3
9.8
6.4
4.9

Field goal %
57.9
53.9
48.9
61.4
47.4

3-point field goal %
34.6
36.5
38.0
28.6
38.0

Player Impact Estimate
21.1
18.7
20.1
19.8
15.6

1Nikola Jokić – Denver Nuggets

2-time NBA MVP (2021, 2022)

Last week’s ranking: 1

Nikola Jokić narrowly keeps his #1 spot for the third consecutive week. While Luka Dončić is hot on the two-time MVP’s heels, Jokić’s continued dominance kept him in pole position. His most recent game saw him post a 26-point, 18-rebound, 14-assist masterclass. Most importantly, however, Denver is nipping at the heels of the OKC Thunder for first place in the West.

As long as Denver stays in first or second place, it will be difficult for Dončić, or anyone else, to get the nod over him.

Nikola Jokić Stats • MVP Seasons v. 2023-24

Season
PPG
RPG
APG
Field Goal%

2020-21
26.4
10.8
8.3
.566

2021-22
27.1
13.8
7.9
.583

2023-24
26.1
12.3
9.0
.579

As a team, Denver is rolling lately. Though they have played very well the entire year, the whole lineup is geared up for the postseason. Jokić’s recent dominance is similar to the title-winning form he displayed during the 2023 Playoffs. With a strong finish to the season, Jokić’s third MVP trophy could be a formality.

• Odds to win: -600

2Luka Dončić – Dallas Mavericks

NBA’s Leading Scorer with 34.0 points per game

Last week’s ranking: 3

Following a seven-game winning streak, Dončić and the Dallas Mavericks are finally picking up momentum in the playoff race. Currently, the Mavs hold a slim margin over the Phoenix Suns for the coveted 6th spot after being in eight place just a week ago. The main narrative surrounding the NBA’s leading scorer is Dallas’s winning percentage – if they continue to their ascent, Luka’s chances to win will multiply.

Luka Dončić Stats • Last 3 Seasons

Season
PPG
APG
RPG
Field Goal%

2021-22
28.4
8.7
9.1
.457

2022-23
32.4
8.0
8.6
.496

2023-24
34.0
9.8
9.1
.489

Luka remained in great form last week, highlighted by a 47-point, 12-rebound, 7-assist night in a victory over the Rockets. The Mavericks are jostling for playoff position, and if they end the season on a tear, he might surpass Jokic.

• Odds to win: +550

3Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Oklahoma City Thunder

Averaging 30.3 points per game

Last week’s ranking: 2

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is determined to make this year’s MVP race interesting down to the final few games of the regular season, but he dropped a spot amid Doncic’s dominance. Granted, he missed two games last week with a nagging injury. OKC’s final place in the standings will dictate a lot, though OKC’s superstar would highly benefit from a couple of signature performances as the season winds down.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander • 2023-24 Ranks

Category
Value
Rank

Points Per Game
30.3
3rd

Total Points
2150
2nd

Steals Per Game
2.1
1st

Total Steals
148
1st

Over this past week, the 25-year-old missed two games and scored only 19 points in a one-point win over the Knicks, which is the main reason he fell a spot.

Still, his 30.3 points per game average is elite and he’s a driving factor of the team’s monumental turnaround from playing in the Play-In Tournament a season ago. Voters will undoubtedly show SGA the respect he deserves, but he will likely need to operate at an even higher level to climb back up.

• Odds to win: +1800

4Giannis Antetokounmpo – Milwaukee Bucks

2-time NBA MVP (2019, 2020)

Last week’s ranking: 4

Giannis is on pace to become the first player in NBA history to average at least 30 points, 12 rebounds, and 6 assists on at least 60% shooting for an entire season. Those numbers are legitimately incredible – any other year, he would probably be leading the MVP talks. Not only is the field stacked, but Milwaukee’s slight inconsistencies have held him back from moving up in the race.

After missing a couple of games with a hamstring issue, Giannis returned this week and averaged 30.2 points over his last five games, and the Bucks went 3-2

Giannis Antetokounmpo Stats • MVP Seasons v. 2023-24

Season
PPG
RPG
APG
Field Goal%

2018-19
27.7
12.5
5.9
.578

2019-20
29.5
13.6
5.6
.553

2023-24
30.8
11.5
6.4
.614

Though the Bucks are still putting it all together, the team picked up some key wins without Giannis in the lineup, which doesn’t help his case. Still, everyone knows who Milwaukee’s best player and leader is: look for Antetokounmpo to continue operating at a near-championship level over the next few weeks.

• Odds to win: +10000

5Jayson Tatum – Boston Celtics

The best player on the best team

Last week’s ranking: 5

Jayson Tatum was previously barely ahead of Brunson and Edwards for the last spot on this week’s MVP rankings, but he has finalized his spot as of late. Tatum, whose Celtics are running away with the NBA’s best record, has returned to the All-NBA form Boston fans are accustomed to. In a win over the Bucks on March 20th, Boston’s all-star finished with 31 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists. Now, the Celtics don’t need any “statement wins” at this point in the season.

Jayson Tatum • 2023-24 Advanced Numbers

Category
Value

Points Per 40 Minutes
30.4

True Shooting%
60.8

Usage Rate
30.0

The Celtics have been locks to finish with the best record for several weeks now, and Tatum has proven that he is an elite player. However, has the playoffs begin, will he continue to have an impact?

• Odds to win: +10000