The Chiefs’ offense hasn’t looked like the Chiefs’ offense in 2021. Patrick Mahomes has struggled through the worst slump in his four years as Kansas City’s starting quarterback.

So why is the team not rolling and lighting up the scoreboard per usual this NFL season? Because of uncharacteristic inefficiency and passing game limitations, the Chiefs are only 5-4 going into Week 10’s critical AFC West division game at Las Vegas. They are only No. 15 in scoring offense at 24.6 points per game, down from No. 6 and 29.6 points per game in 2020.

Should they get well on Sunday night, the Chiefs would jump back into at least second place in the division ahead of the Raiders, and maybe in first place ahead of the Chargers. But a loss would create more serious doubt about whether they can get back on track.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have a problem (and no, it’s not the refs): Sando’s Pick Six

Cover 7 | Monday A daily NFL destination that provides in-depth analysis of football’s biggest stories. Each Monday, Mike Sando breaks down the six most impactful takeaways from the week.

Patrick Mahomes screamed. He threw down his helmet in anger. The Kansas City Chiefs’ MVP quarterback lost his composure on the sideline at Arrowhead Stadium to a degree unseen previously. He was apoplectic.

Never before could Mahomes recall losing a game on an officiating call like the one referee Carl Cheffers’ crew made to negate a go-ahead Chiefs touchdown. Mahomes had shrugged off a blatantly bad missed pass-interference call in Green Bay just one week ago, but offensive offside to wipe out a Travis Kelce improvised lateral TD in the final 90 seconds of a 20-17 home defeat to Buffalo? This was too much.

If any team was supposed to run hot and melt down in a narrow defeat with playoff seeding implications Sunday, the Sean McDermott-coached Bills were that team. Their week had bottomed out with “Saturday Night Live” parodying McDermott for citing the teamwork of 9/11 terrorists during a 2019 team meeting — one of several damaging revelations from the Go Long expose casting McDermott as an out-of-touch, unaccountable micromanager.

Since when do the Chiefs lose the way the Bills are supposed to fall short? Since now, is when. Because the margin for error has evaporated for Kansas City, complicating its push for another Super Bowl.

The Pick Six column sizes up where the Chiefs stand, why their margin for error is gone and what it could mean for the future, with a Dan Marino career parallel to keep in mind, even if it’s premature now. As for the penalty Mahomes and the Chiefs were so upset about, we’ll get to the bottom of that one as well, with insights aplenty from NFL contacts.

The full menu for Week 14:

• Mahomes, Chiefs and Dan Marino
• Offensive offside? Here’s the deal
• Zach Wilson, Justin Fields audition
• MVP update: Case for Tyreek Hill
• On Packers’ 16-0 December record
• Two-minute drills: Sam Howell’s future

1. Here is where the Chiefs stand, why Dan Marino is relevant, thoughts on Travis Kelce and the new reality at wide receiver.

Mahomes’ starting record before Sunday was 46-2, counting playoffs, when Kansas City held the opponent below 21 points, per TruMedia. That included 16-2 when the opponent scored 17-20 points.

Those records are now 46-3 and 16-3, respectively. Both previous defeats were oddities against the Indianapolis Colts in 2019 and last season. This one hurt more because it more accurately reflected where the Chiefs stand on offense. This was less of a one-off than those Indy games. It was the game after the Chiefs lost 27-19 in Green Bay, which was two weeks after the Chiefs lost at home to Philadelphia, which was two games after the Chiefs lost to a Denver team that didn’t even try to play offense.

• Where the Chiefs stand: The chart below shows AFC teams’ week-to-week probability changes as they chase the top seed in the conference, a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs.

The Athletic’s Austin Mock maintains the model used for the projections. By his accounting, the Chiefs’ chances have plummeted from 60 percent entering Week 11 to 11 percent now, well below the Miami Dolphins (53 percent) and Baltimore Ravens (34 percent).

“I’d be worried about them on the road against Miami,” a coach with AFC East experience said. “You are going to Miami, and it is going to be hot as hell, as opposed to bringing Miami into Kansas City and it’s freezing? That is a big difference.”

I think the Chiefs will win out against the Patriots, Raiders, Bengals and Chargers, but they aren’t facing any of those teams in the playoffs.